Complete CS2 Case Odds

We’ve said it before, and we will say it again: you probably shouldn’t open CS2 cases. CS2 cases have pretty bad odds, and whenever you open them, it is more than likely that you will lose a significant amount of the money you spend. If you are looking to get skins, don’t open cases; buy them from marketplaces and trading sites instead. If you still aren’t convinced that opening cases in CS2 isn’t the best idea, let’s take a look at CS2 case odds.

CS2 Case Odds

CS2 cases are divided into five groups: Rare Special Item(Gold), Covert(Red), Classified(Pink), Restricted(Purple), and Mil-Spec(Blue). The odds of unboxing an item from each of these categories are the same across all cases; there are no special cases where you have higher odds of getting valuable skins. Let’s examine the odds of each item.

Rare Special Items(Knives/Gloves) – 0.26%

The odds of unboxing a knife in CS2 is roughly 1 in 385, or 0.26%. The same goes for gloves in cases that drop gloves rather than knives. In other words, if you want to open a gold in CS2, you will need to open an average of 400 cases. Even without factoring in the cost of the case, this will cost you $1000 worth of keys for a likely chance of getting an expensive skin. So, if you want to unbox rare items like knives and gloves in CS2, we highly suggest using marketplaces and trading sites.

Covert(Red) – 0.64%

With more than 2x higher odds of being unboxed than golds, you are far more likely to get multiple covert skins before getting a knife or gloves. On average, it takes more than 150 cases to get a covert skin, meaning you will spend around $375 in keys alone to get a red, which may not even be a very valuable skin, in the average case opening.

Classified(Pink) – 3.2%

If you are opening 30 or more cases in one case opening, then you will likely get at least one pink. Classified skins have unboxing odds of 3.2% or 1 in 31, which is just low enough that it is somewhat possible that you might get one if you open just one case. However, odds are you will have to open quite a bit before getting a pink skin, and with some classified skins costing less than the case itself, these odds aren’t very justified.

Restricted(Purple) – 15.98%

If you open 10 cases, probability says you will open 1-2 purples. With odds of obtaining one at 16%, or 1 in 6, purples will be a somewhat common unboxing if you open a large number of cases, but in almost all cases, getting a purple is not worth celebrating, as they usually sell for a pretty low price. Restricted skins can help you to get some amount of return on investment, unlike Mil-Spec skins, but they are almost never enough to break even on a case.

Mil-Spec(Blue) – 79.92%

Every time you open cases, you are extremely likely to get a Mil-Spec(blue) skin, which is the lowest tier of CS skins. With odds of getting a blue at 4 in 5, you are about 4x more likely to get Mil-Spec weapons than anything else when opening cases. Since Mil-Specs tend to have the lowest price of any other tier of skin in a case, opening one almost guarantees that you have lost a significant amount from the cost of the case.

Instead of Opening Cases…

Instead of doing a case opening to get skins, or even using the Steam Community Market, you should buy them from marketplaces or exchange your skins for other skins on trading sites. These sites offer the best prices for skins, tons of payment systems, transparent buying fees, and a larger volume of valuable items. To find the best marketplaces and trading sites, take a look at our partnered sites, which have tons of users and great prices. All you have to do is go to the site, log in with Steam to sign up, deposit your balance into the virtual wallets used by the website, find the CS skin you want, buy the skin, wait for a trade offer, and within seconds it will be in your in-game inventory! You can find a review for each of these sites on our partnered sites page.

Additional Notes

Please note that while these odds apply to all weapon cases in CS2, they do not apply to special cases like collections cases, packages, and capsules. Also, note that the value of each item is different across cases. For example, a Covert in one case may be worth $15, while Covert weapons in other cases can have a value of hundreds of dollars.